Market Analysis in Current Perspective - 21/05/2019

Trade tension between US and China and fear of global economic slowdown are dampening the sentiments of the commodity market, especially base metals. In the past few days, almost all base metals witnessed weakness in price. Among Base-Metals pack Copper and Lead are the main looser while Zinc proved to be a strong performer. There is no sign of price rise in base metals in the near future and the weakness seems to likely to continue. We should wait for positive development for fresh buying. Although Copper and Lead price are at an attractive valuation for buying but wait & watch will be the right strategy at the present situation.

After Exit-Poll in India by the various agencies, in which they are claiming for a clear majority for NDA (the Present Govt.), the Indian Equity market surged high on Monday, at the start of this week. This surge was the biggest one-day surge in the Sensex in his past ten years history. The real result of Indian General Election-2019 has to come on the 23rd of May this week, but market runs on expectations so it has given reactions before the real result. Now, In my point of view, it will trade in a narrow range till 23rd May. Volatility is highly expected on the result day. Seeing the global situations Indian market is unlikely to sustain this rally and should start correction sooner or later.

Yesterday, on Monday 20th May i.e. on the start of this week INR gained by almost 1 Rs against the dollar hence Indian commodity market (MCX) opened low. If INR starts weakening again the MCX commodity may get some support. In my point of view, some of the base metals are trading at very low and for the long term, they look attractive.

I will prefer to go for Lead which is trading on an attractive level for buying. Copper could be also a good buy on some more downfall from the current level.

Recent Update: As expected equity market started corrections today from a higher level and Nifty has corrected almost 200 points from its today's high. 

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