Natural Gas Analysis

NG Technical Analysis for the next and coming week (From 13 Nov Till Nov Expiry)

Last Update : 16-Nov-2020 5:55 AM

Natural Gas on MCX in November month contract made a high of approx. 251, from there a correction of almost 40 rupees has been seen and made a low at 210. From there it was consolidating in a narrow range and made a high of 230.80 last Friday(13 Nov 2020), on the day of Inventory. Inventory was 8bcf while the expectation was -3bcf while previous week it was -36bcf, so it was a little negative for Natural Gas price. Prices fall after the bearish inventory report on Friday.

Although we are bullish on Natural Gas in the very short term we are expecting a further correction in prices and on MCX natural gas prices are likely to fall up to the 201-200 range. From there a fresh bull rally and the major uptrend may resume. 

On the basis of technical analysis and various indicators, we are bearish on Natural Gas for a few coming days. 

We have given a sell call in Natural Gas on Friday. Sell was given at 229.50 for the targets of 201,200 with a strict Stop-Loss of 231 in MCX.

As you can see in the below daily chart according to Elliot Wave it seems to form a 4th corrective wave in which A, B wave has completed and currently C is in progress to complete.

If you see the RSI of the daily chart, you will find that it is likely to tend towards the lower band of 30, which also indicates that further price correction is due. 

According to price retracement, it is also justifying a correction. Bollinger Band on a daily also seems to tell the same story. Based on all the above-mentioned indicators we expect further price slides towards the 200 range on MCX. After completing the correction we would like to watch price behavior and like to go long if price sustain between 201-198 range for a target price of 230, 250, 280. 

This article is only for information purposes and does not guarantee the price behavior.     

Disclaimer: The author of this post does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is a highly volatile and most liquid commodity. Any loss/profit made on the basis of the above analysis will be unclaimed.